Abstract
Black Swans have become the norm rather than the exception. These unimaginable events with massive consequences seem to be a by-product of our society ruled by complex systems. As more Black Swans are looming, an interest in becoming more resilient is rising. However, achieving resilience against Black Swans remains an ambiguous endeavour. Looking into academic literature, “wargaming” Black Swans is often proposed as an antidote since it explores decision-making in an adversarial and unimaginable context. However, how these Black Swan-focused wargames can take shape is unclear. In response, this paper proposes a design of a wargame addressing systemic resilience in the face of looming Black Swans consisting of four modules. The paper presents the iterative design process based on four playtesting workshops with 52 researchers and practitioners in design, crisis management, aviation, healthcare, and serious gaming. The paper concludes with recommendations and directions for future research.
Keywords
black swans; resilience; complex systems; wargaming
DOI
https://doi.org/10.21606/drs.2024.859
Citation
Nieuwborg, A., Salliou, N., and Geurtsen, J. (2024) Designing Systemic Resilience in the Face of Looming Black Swans through a Seminar-Style Wargame, in Gray, C., Ciliotta Chehade, E., Hekkert, P., Forlano, L., Ciuccarelli, P., Lloyd, P. (eds.), DRS2024: Boston, 23–28 June, Boston, USA. https://doi.org/10.21606/drs.2024.859
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Conference Track
Research Paper
Included in
Designing Systemic Resilience in the Face of Looming Black Swans through a Seminar-Style Wargame
Black Swans have become the norm rather than the exception. These unimaginable events with massive consequences seem to be a by-product of our society ruled by complex systems. As more Black Swans are looming, an interest in becoming more resilient is rising. However, achieving resilience against Black Swans remains an ambiguous endeavour. Looking into academic literature, “wargaming” Black Swans is often proposed as an antidote since it explores decision-making in an adversarial and unimaginable context. However, how these Black Swan-focused wargames can take shape is unclear. In response, this paper proposes a design of a wargame addressing systemic resilience in the face of looming Black Swans consisting of four modules. The paper presents the iterative design process based on four playtesting workshops with 52 researchers and practitioners in design, crisis management, aviation, healthcare, and serious gaming. The paper concludes with recommendations and directions for future research.